NetNews Offline 2/NetNews Offline Volume 2.iso/news/comp/sys/amiga/misc-part1/638

Internet Message Format | 1996-08-05 | 8.6 KB

Path: news.cuny.edu!grems
From: <[e-mail]>
Newsgroups: comp.sys.amiga.misc
Subject: Computer Mags. are not jurnalism.
Date: Mon, 8 Jan 1996 07:38:19 EST
Organization: City University of New York/University Computer Center
Message-ID: <[e-mail]>
NNTP-Posting-Host: cunyvm.cuny.edu
Disclaimer: Author bears full responsibility for this post

    With the exception of Amiga Report, there are no computer magazines
 that practice computer jurnalism. Even Amazing Amiga reports on the
 Amiga only (though they are thinking of covering other non IBM/Mac
 machines).
    Computer mags. in general are extensions of the computer hardware/
 software industry, and they are more collective marketing efforts.
 I have a bunch of old Byte and Compute mags. that did try to report on
 the whole micro computer industry, but that is from the late 70s, and
 early 80s when the industry was so small and new, that you had things
 like Byte magazine publishing basic programs for games to run on the
 CBM Pet. When big money got into it, you got the specialization of the
 mags. and there near complete submission to the whims of there advertisers
 and to a lesser extent the specialized interests of a narrower and
 narrower reader base.
      All this complaining about the non coverage of the Amiga is pointless.
 if you expect any coverage of the Amiga in Byte, or any other "general"
 computer mags, then you will have to wait until AT and Amiga third party
 companies start to advertise in those mags.
      I find some hope in the fact that Escom/AT was willing to take a loss
 for the sake of future growth. Medi Ali and Irving Gould were unwilling to
 sacrifice any current income for the growth of CBM. There own unwillingness
 to invest in there own company was the most worrying, and predictive thing
 about CBM. People always used to comment on the fact that CBM allways made
 a profit, even when other computer companies were in the red for one
 quarter or another, as though this in and of it'self were allways a good
 thing. It's like business debt. Debt is not a bad thing if it's money
 you borrow to buy new plant and equiptment to increase productivity. It is
 a bad thing if you borrow to support current consumption. I have a small
 business, and it is sometimes necessary to spend money on it that I have
 not earned yet. I float myself a loan myself a loan, or sometimes ask
 people who provide me with equiptment, or services to wait until I have
 finished a project for there payment (nothing instills financial discipline
 like being personaly responsible for the bebt.). My general rule is that
 I don't take on debt that dosn't contribute to the expansion of my capacity
 to do future business. I never take on debt to get a equiptment or software
 simply because I would like to have it, or because I think it might be
 usefull in some general way. It has to be part of a tightly controled
 business plan. I know generaly what I want to be doing a year from now,
 and I have an idea as to what I have to do and invest to get there. If I
 can't get the business I thought I could, or if I have an unexpected
 opportunity, then my business plan is flexible enough to change to take
 those things into consideration.
     The bigger a business is, the slower it can react to changes in it's
 fortunes (thank God! Or little guys like me couldn't compete). So AT might
 not at this point be able to do much advertiseing in North American mags.
 at the moment, but hopefully they have a business plan that is flexible
 enough to take advantage of targets of opportunity in North America when
 they arise. I believe that the early entrants into the marketplace for
 consumer grade World Wide Web access machines, are the Microsofts, Lotus',
 and Borland' of the next decade. And 1996 is the year the gun goes off
 for the race. AT has an unusual set of technologies that can give them a
 12 to 18 month period of competativeness in this market starting no later
 than April 96. The A1200 Surfur bundle is a good start, and with constant
 incremental improvement, and mass production, and marketing, can be the
 key to kind of growth that could make Escom/AT a household name all over
 the world.
     There is a limit as to what Escom/AT can afford to invest in growing
 the business, and my guess is that they pretty much used up there credit
 and capital in 95. Manfred Schmitt chiped in some of his own shares in
 Escom to conclude the German Telecoms deal this year. That is a good sign
 both for the fortunes of Escom, but also that Escom is in no position to
 take on more major financial obligations in 96, before they have had a
 chance to assimilate the changes they have allready brought on themselfs.
    How then do I think they can swing a major new North American initiative
 in 1996? Partnership! I know they recognize this option, because they have
 paid lip service to the search for a North American "strategic partner" in
 previous comments on the development of the North American market. If they
 will concentrate on locateing that partner, useing the potential of the
 Surfur as there main argument for capital commitment, I think they could
 have that partner very quickly.
     Who might that partner be? I don't know, but I would suggest that they
 look at a North American Telecoms firm. 1996 will see the passage of a
 telecomunication deregulation bill here in the US, which will open the
 cable and local telephone companies up to competiton unlike anything they
 have ever experianced. Among other things this will mean low cost internet
 web access. AT&T, MCI, Sprint, NYNEX, and Pac Bell have all announced there
 intentions to get into this market, and the rest will surely follow (anyone
 owning stock in America On Line might want to rethink that investment).
 One of the logical things a company wants to do in a competative situation
 is TO BE SEEN by the potential customer as provideing more service for
 the same, or less money. You know your phone company by the hardware you
 have in your house (your phone). You pay (or once paid) for your phone
 via a monthly rental charge on your phone bill, that most people didn't
 even notice. There is every reason to believe that NYNEX, or some other
 RBOC (Regional Bell Opperating Company), would be willing to provide
 a cheap home computer on the same basis. To the phone companies accounting
 system, there is no differance between a computer and a phone. And more
 importantly, a computer is a physical object in the customers home by
 which a phone company gets a familiar and accepted place in the life of
 of the consumer (Ask yourself how many people stuck with AT&T after
 long lines deregulation because of habit, or lazyness?). It is intirely
 possible that AT&T could offer internet access at $3.00 a month (the
 figure that was mentioned in Dow Jones' Barons mag.), and still be
 beten out by an RBOC offering the same service at $5.00/month. Why
 can't AT&T offer a similar package? Or MCI? Or Sprint? They can, but
 only your local Phone company send ALL of you a bill EVERY month.
     As I see it, despite being behind the curve of competativeness to
 the long lines carriers, only the RBOC' have complete in home penetration
 for the forseeable future, and therefor enjoy a strategic advantage over
 the competition.
     Haveing just dealt with the European telecoms deregulation, and even
 haveing just done a deal with a German telecoms company, the Escom leadership
 is probably more familiar with the culture of the telecoms business, than
 they are with any other kind of potential partner other than a retail
 company (which could be competition for Escom should they want to come
 into North America as a retailer in the futur). There is only so much
 intelectual effort we can expect from Escom management. MS can't spend
 his life learning the intricies of a new business every year, he has
 his own business to run. If MS allready has spent the time getting
 to know the mind set of the telecoms business, he is probably safer going
 that way for a North American partner.
    One other consideration is the money available to any potential partner,
 and there willingness to part with it. Basicly the phone company has had
 a licence to print money. All of the telecoms in North America are very
 large and very rich (even to the point of capital burden) compared to
 largest retailers,or even most computer firms (I don't think anyone wants
 to do a deal with Microsoft, or Intel, though Motorola, or IBM are
 less unthinkable).
     Well that' it. The first order of business for Escom/AT & partner is
 to crank up production of A1200s into the millions per year range, and
 the second order is to crank up advertisement.